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Messages - Shelbie

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Weekly Picks/Handicapping / 11/15
« on: November 14, 2017, 02:54:58 PM »
1. Free-for-all - Soliloquy - Brigade Countess
2. Fanclub - Wicked Nurse - Brackets
3. Justified - Mexcan Spice - Here's Johnny
4. Desert Wood - Honored Engagement - Royal Edict
5. Marmalade - Oathbound - General Washington
6. Outsider - Reverent - Awesome Sorbet
7. Hollywood Cover - Cats Breath - One Lucky Queen
8. Mister Cellophane - Secret Chord - Sunny Wine
9. Strut - Major's Prospect - Triple Crown
10. Cynar - Excessive - Keyboard Warrior
11. Omadale - Break the Rules - Royal Sacred One
12. Harare - Little Horror - In My Blood
13. Kerried Away - Twilight Fires - Perfectly Zipped
14. V Gate - Fast Stamp - Alert Metal
15. Too Hot To Trot - Oh Holy Knight - One-Horse Town
16. Thirteenth Warrior - Goin to the Chapel - Blodeuwedd
17. Mage Born - AllGloryIsfleeting - Gyrfalcon
18. Sommelier - Old Norse - Hallowed Fact
19. Cease Fire - Battle Royal - Gaudy Night
20. Dark Currents - Colonia - Obedient Spell
21. White Hart Lane - Evil Genius - Morocco
22. Mark of a Dancer - MacNamara's Band - Infinity Gauntlet
23. Hollywood Power - Classic Rock - Temporary Aura
24. What's That Girl - Angel of Darkness - Mantle of Honor
25. Gracefuldancer - Fool's Errand - Over the Moon
26. Flaming Flag - Archimedes - Las Vegas Strip
27. Beautiful Motion - Steely Dan - Temptress
28. Wild Aptitude - Palazzo Pubblico - Refracted Evil
29. Vacuous - Stressin Hard - Serene Arch
30. Madd About You - Sakar - Shadow Crusade
31. Present Memory - Primed - Starry Eyed Mandy
32. Pride and Glory - Fractal - House of Cards
33. Dainty Twee - Storm Tiger - Malinche
34. Penzance - Cougar - YesNoMaybeSo
35. Dixon Road - Western Wall - Careless Flirt
36. Crystal Gold - Comes the Night - Behold
37. Magnate - HeavenComeMyWay - Chimney Sweep
38. Evil Persuasion - Mama Cass - Must Be Glory
39. Ease My Mind - Harum Scarum - Shelter of Gold
40. Devil's Chance - Scarlet Chance - Double the Romance
41. Aquilifer - Villain - Agreeable Card
42. Dream Machine - Hyksos - Ghostly Roads
43. Somber Act - Bouncing Raider - King of Saxony
44. GracieofOrangevale - Oklahoma City - Secret Dreams
45. Bottega Veneta - Church is a Stage - Known Bell
46. Magda Searus - Twizzle Stix - Keepcalmandcarryon
47. Calla Lily - Franco Classico - Harlequin
48. Story of My Life - Arimistice - Canaanite
49. Apple Amber - Broken Promise - Navy Kitty
50. Celestial Storm - Got Gloss - Radagast

Comments and Suggestions / Re: Fun Features to Add?
« on: November 13, 2017, 10:55:42 PM »
I finally sent like 95% of my SC horses home due to lack of stakes races for them. Attack in the new year after a long rest.

General/Questions / Re: Slacker 2yo, 3yo Hopefuls
« on: November 13, 2017, 12:39:35 PM »
Alyssa, where do you find all these platinum mares?!

General/Questions / Re: 2020 Results (Finally)
« on: November 11, 2017, 11:08:15 PM »
I didn't play, but I'd love to hear what everyone got if anyone feels like sharing!  :)

I chose Colors Waving, a gold-ranked create mare in foal to Mantle of Power. She has already produced MSW stallion NCh. Aptitude and MSW Ch. Waving Octopus. Unfortunately her 2yo-5yo foals are unraced, but all her raced foals are SP or SW.

General/Questions / Re: 2020 Results (Finally)
« on: November 11, 2017, 08:31:50 PM »
Great surprise! Went for the very shiny broodmare.   ;D

General/Questions / Stallion Watch: Prospects
« on: November 11, 2017, 01:55:19 PM »
A thread for everyone to post their potential stallion prospects. There's no restrictions for who you can post or how often (please, brag!) but maybe wait until a few of the stallion qualifications are met so we're not posting about EVERY stakes win from all our colts, haha. A great place to also announce new stallions heading to the shed next year when breeding season is already over.

 - Is the colt at least 4 years old?
 - Has he won at least 7 stakes races of any grade?
 - Has he won at least 1 Grade 1 stakes race?
 - Has he placed in the top 3 in at least 10 stakes races of any grade?
 - Has he placed in the top 3 in at least 2 Grade 1 races?


My watch list:
GCh. Bracton, 7yo dkb. Rumor Has It x Lady of Honour (Romeo)
Needs 1 SW of any grade (won G1 Epsom Derby, G1 St. Leger, G1 Cox Plate).

NCh. Star of Wonder, 7yo b. Harvard Bound x Wonder's Miracle
Needs 1 SW of any grade (won G1 Coronation Cup)

GCh. Counting Kisses, 5yo b. Count Me In x Never Been Kissed (No Duplicate)
Needs 2 SW's of any grade (won G1 Belmont Stakes)

St. Patrick's Day, 6yo blk. Black Warrior x Topaz (Omaha)
Needs 2 SW's, including a G1

GCh. Sandman, 5yo blk. Nightfight x Dream Time
Needs 3 SW's of any grade (won G1 Doomben Stakes).

Everyone is at home recharging. Hoping to begin training again end of December/early January to hit the stakes races at the start of the year. The older kids will be the trickiest, but again, hoping some epic juicing time at home + several weeks training = supercharged enough to land just that final stakes win (or two)!

How'd You Do? / Re: 11/11
« on: November 11, 2017, 01:16:32 PM »
11(2)-4-2-4(1)-1(1) $158,000 - none worse than 4th!

 Jolly Roger (4yo, High Chances) in an Allowance.
 Ch. Wildwood Flower (4yo, Ring of Fire) in an Allowance.
 Pride and Joy (5yo, Joyeux Oiseau) in an Allowance.
 Darling Has It (5yo, Rumor Has It) in a NW2 Allowance.

 Maihar'du (3yo, Secretsarebound) in an Allowance.
 Sylvester (5yo, Alley Cat) in an Allowance.

 Frosted Moose (4yo, Dark Continent) in an Allowance.
 Spiritual (2yo, Aptitude) in a NW2 Allowance.
 Green Impulse (3yo, Prince Of Wonder) in a NW1 Allowance.
 Tendresse (3yo, Dark Continent) in the Long Island Stakes (Gr. 2).

 Decorated (3yo, In The Navy) in the Frank Packer Stakes (Gr. 3).

Stallion Advertising / Re: Black Storm 2022: French Ruby & Yes It's Paddy
« on: November 10, 2017, 12:55:48 PM »
I have you down, Willa!

General/Questions / Re: Slacker 2yo, 3yo Hopefuls
« on: November 09, 2017, 06:55:02 PM »
Two claims from this year I'm hoping will turn into nice three year olds. Vampris is out of a silver-ranked Danzig mare and from the same line as NCh. Boldness Shows, GCh. No Sudden Moves, WCh. Subzero Justice, and an old horse of ours NCh. Rocket Fuel. She was unplaced in 5 starts this year. Her dam was FF-campaigned her entire career and didn't have the best overall record, but Dark Demand foals seem to do best as they get older.

Our other claim this year is Acatour, a TakeMeToHollywood daughter out of a gold mare by A.P. Indy. She raced 14 times this year and hit the board twice. I'm thinking she'll do best with rest + gradual training before hitting the track; three of her MSW half-sibs did best at 3+.

Strongheart is a late July baby unplaced in 3 starts this year. By Strider out of an unranked Whirlaway mare, he definitely comes across as a late bloomer. It's hard to say how exactly he'll do, as his dam only produced one another foal who is unraced, and his dam's half-sisters have not produced any foals.

Out of one of my favorite mares, Jawbreaker managed a 2nd and 3rd in 4 starts so not bad, but he's definitely bred to, well, be bad at two. His sire, Drum Major, was terrible at 2 but really took off at 3+. Jawbreaker's half-brother, Get the Axe, was winless at 2 and his half-sister won half her starts at 3.

Finally, I'm hoping Brawny Locket will pick up at three. By Giant's Causeway out of an unranked The Black mare, I like the Sire/Broodmare Sire combo but the best he's managed is a 4th and a lot of rough workout comments. He is also a late July baby, so I'm thinking he'll do better next year.

I should just stay here, lol. Two for Blue Smoke please:

Carry the Day - May 1A
Ellenai - Feb 2B

General/Questions / Re: Breeding matches
« on: November 09, 2017, 03:27:47 PM »
When I first joined and just had a tiny handful of broodmares and zero breeding knowledge I would go through the major stables and just see who they were sending their mares to, haha. It did get me my first SW!

General/Questions / Slacker 2yo, 3yo Hopefuls
« on: November 09, 2017, 03:25:57 PM »
We all have those two year olds who couldn't find their feed bucket without large neon signs and a bread crumb trail. The ever-hopefuls with stellar pedigrees and ADD tendencies. Or those high-priced yearlings that are still eating money rather than making. Not everyone from our "2yo's of [Year]" thread come through.

What are some current 2 year olds you hope will transform into better 3yo's? Any horses you hope will wizen up before the Triple Crown? Or maybe a 2yo who is bred to bloom late and you're counting on a good 3yo season.

General/Questions / Re: Breeding matches
« on: November 09, 2017, 12:32:45 PM »
You've seen my spreadsheet! I try to match racing preferences between stallions and mares but start with going through dams, granddams (top and bottom) and seeing what stallions they crossed with. If that same stallion isn't there I look for sons and grandsons whose racing preferences are still similar. If I don't have much to go by I look through the mare's sire's other daughters and see what stallions they crossed well with. Dirt/turf I will often mix but I try to keep flat runners and chasers separate with an emphasis on matching distances or maybe crossing a classic distance horse with an endurance runner, sprint with medium, etc. to sort of create a mix of the two. If I have a mare who failed to run straight until 5 or older I will try to find a stallion who peaked earlier in hopes of a solid 3/4yo runner. I also have this weird thing about height and will try to keep all minimal height predictions at 15hh+. On very rare occasions I will breed a mare back to the same stallion for one of three reasons: 1) Stillborn, 2) First foal I either never owned or sold and wish I hadn't, or 3) It produced a color I didn't like (I've only done this once! Haha).

Like Imagine, it's sort of pot luck when deciding what mares to send to my own stallions. Mostly this is because French Ruby is from rarer/unproven lines and Yes It's Paddy is created -- on one hand, I can send ANY mare to these guys! On the other hand, I'm throwing all sorts of darts at the board and hoping to find a pattern. My flat classic dirt/turf mares tend to visit Paddy, as his foals seem to swing that way, and chasers or sprinters to Ruby for similar reasons. I also send some of my tallest mares to Paddy since he's just 15hh. I TRY to send about 2/3 of my mares to my own stallions then the remaining third to outside stallions in order to bring in new blood, but as I only have two boys to rotate through some of my mares have already visited both. I avoid crossing half sibs (top or bottom) and the closest I'll do for inbreeding is 3x4 (just feels icky otherwise, haha). Created mares I'll send to anyone but I have a personal preference for game-bred stallions just to beef up the resulting foal pedigree a little.

One thing I also do is I choose 2-3 mares to keep in specific locations abroad: a batch in Australia and a batch in England so I can tap into those stallions without paying the mass shipping fees each year. Not BREEDING related in terms of crosses, but it has worked well for me in saving dollars while not relying solely on auctions and claiming races to obtain ENG/AUS-stallion foals.

Questions / Re: Breed Rankings Question
« on: November 08, 2017, 03:35:09 PM »
If it's okay, I'm going to ask about a few of mine as well who show as unranked:

Candy Girl - 3 foals: 2 runners, 1 MSW and 1 winner. Breed Rank avg. 13.6 points.
Cherry Cheesecake - 5 foals: 3 runners, 1 MSW and 1 SW. Breed Rank avg. 9.5 points.
GCh. June My Love - 5 foals: 3 runners, all winners, with a MSW 2yo, SW and winner. Breed Rank avg. 5 points.
Ch. Magic Jester - 6 foals, 4 runners, 3 winners (1 SW). Breed Rank avg. 4.4 points.

Makes me want to check all my mares now, haha.

Weekly Picks/Handicapping / Re: 11/08
« on: November 08, 2017, 02:13:36 PM »
Wins: 250 x 9 = $2250
Places: 100 x 6 = $600
Shows: 50 x 14 = $700
Quinellas: 500 x 4 = $2000
Trifectas: 1000 x 3 = $3000
Total: $8550

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