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Shanthi
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« on: February 23, 2004, 10:10:02 PM »

 So for setting up betting for FF (which, I may as well warn you now, will not be happening anytime soon), what are the types of bets and how to they work?

Obviously there's win/place/show, but then there's exacta, trifecta, etc, and others that I'm sure I've forgotten/never knew about.

Also, how does the money paid out reflect the odds?  Does a 100-1 longshot pay $100 for every $2 bet, or $200?  Since I think $2 is the minimum bet at most tracks, right?

For FF, I will probably make the minimum bet either $50 or $100, and require that bets be in increments of either $50 or $100 (depending on what the min. bet is).  Maximum bet will probably be something like $10,000, maybe more, maybe less.

So...any gambling experts out there?  ;)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:39:02 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2004, 10:41:59 PM »

 100-1 would pay $100 for ever $1 increment. So yeah, $200 for a $2 bet. That's all I know. Hehehe...

« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:39:10 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Augie1125
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2004, 03:35:27 AM »

 well i know everything ther is to know about betting lol.

If a horse is 2/1 you get 6 dollars for every two dollars bet
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:39:27 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Shanthi
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2004, 03:45:01 AM »

 That doesn't make sense...you bet $2, the horse pays at 2/1 odds and you get 3x the amount you bet??

And for someone who knows "everything", you only answered one question.  :P  ;)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:39:38 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2004, 03:46:59 AM »

 I'm right about that one

Shanthi. I only ever bet like that at the races, so yeah... :D
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SRFVirginia
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2004, 09:33:37 AM »

 this is so confusing!  im

hoping to learn something here so when i get to be eighteen, i can be an expert!  im going to

win lots of money!  so yeah...just letting you know i'll be listening!  (since my knowledge

about this subject is almost non-existant)
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Andrea
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2004, 01:30:09 PM »

 well, the 2/1 payout being $4 on a $2 bet sounds right from my limitted experience... 'cause you earn $2 for every $1 you bet.  But that obviously is only for a Win bet, I dunno how they mod that to get the payounts if you bet on that horse to Place/Show...
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:40:03 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2004, 07:57:38 PM »

 It's the same for a place or show. So if a horse is paying $3.65 for the win and $1.55 for the place or show and you do a $5.00 bet each-way [so your betting a win and place/show], you would recieve $18.25 for the win part of your bet [ie. 5 x 3.65] and $7.75 for the place/show part of your bet [ie. 5 x 1.55]. I'm sure that's how it works.

I normally have a bet on the bigger races and that's how I bet and get paid.

To get a payout for a place your horse can run 1st, 2nd or 3rd. However, if there is a field less then 8 or 10, can't quite remember, then there is no 3rd dividend.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:40:24 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Shanthi
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2004, 11:41:38 PM »

 Yeah, but my questioin is how you come up with the $3.65 and the $1.55...specifically the $1.55, since theoretically the $3.65 would be for a, what, 3.65-1 horse?  (Not that I've ever seen those odds, but whatever ;))  Does a 10-1 horse pay $10 to win and then $5 to place/show?  Thought place and show were 2 separate bets anyway?  And then how would you come up with the $ for the exacta/trifecta bets?  ;)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:41:13 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2004, 11:49:41 PM »

 Yeah I dunno how odds work.

Hehehe. But yeah, I think that place odds are worked out separatly. I've noticed that a 5-1

horse can be at higher place odds then a 7-1 horse. So I don't know how they get off on

that.

Oh, sorry, in Australia we have the bookmakers which use fractions and then the

betting companies which use decimals. They just like to confuse you. So I think with the

whack odds thats where like 7-4 and 11-3 and all that stuff comes in.
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Augie1125
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2004, 03:57:09 PM »

 well 2/1 pays 6 dollars because you get 4 dollars for 2/1 and the two dollars you bet trust me.  Exacta pools are different from win place show pool.  Exacta is usually around  the win price times the place price for the second horse.  Ill copy and paste an example to show everything.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:41:46 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Augie1125
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2004, 04:02:41 PM »

 Doc Wild Bravo J 120              3.60 2.80 2.40
3 Port Henry Piermarini T 120         6.00 4.60
7 Warplane Decarlo C P 120                  3.60
 Times in 5ths: :224 :46 1:11  1:24
 Times in 100ths: :22.97

:46.12 1:11.14  1:24.01
 
Claimed:  Despite by  McPherson Alexander F. (McPherson AllisonA.), 
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Tax Deferred, Despite,

Tour the Line and Chairman Cella
Winning Trainer: Lake Scott A - Owner: Leo Gaspari Racing

Stable, Inc.     
$1  Exacta  (2-3)  Paid $15.40
$1  Trifecta  (2-3-7)  Paid $60.30

The horse that won was 3/5 a heavy favorite.

If a horse was 1/2 it would pay 3 dollars to win.  1 dollar winning for every two dollars bet.  when your horse wins you get 3 dollars.

This is correct, I make my living in college by betting so betting, is what  I know
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 08:15:00 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Shanthi
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2004, 05:33:34 PM »

 So how do you get the $3.60 from the 3/5 odds?  Since $2 * (3/5) is $1.20, not $3.60.

What I'll probably do, if/when I can figure out how to write a script to generate odds, is set it up so that place bets pay ~75% of the win bet amount, and show bets pay ~50% of that.  Not sure how to work win bets for a horse that places, though...maybe just have it be 75% of win bets and 50% of show bets?  I dunno.  Main part at the moment is coming up with the odds and then the payouts.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:43:26 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2004, 07:28:24 PM »

 I still don't understand how

Dan's system works. Surely they don't gift you extra money? I know for a fact that it

doesn't work that way in Australia.

Maybe the whole system is different over there, but

for win/place/show you get a place showout. So if your horse comes top three and you do a

place bet then you get money, aswell as the win bet if it wins.
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Augie1125
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« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2004, 07:43:52 PM »

 Well it was between 3/5 and 4/5 since they dont have a 3.5/5 they use the lower one. 

I know where we are confused. 

In your system you are not collecting money before they take the bet.  So yes if I took 5 dollars to win on ahorse I would win 10 true.  But if I gave you the the 5 dollars first I would get back 15

Hope this clears this up.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:44:04 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2004, 08:15:41 PM »

 No, I'm even more lost. So

what your saying is they take your money, then happily give it back along with your winnings?

I don't get it. I give my $10 or whatever to a man, the race is run and he gives me

back $30 at odds of 3/1. Sounds much easier to understand to me.

Perhaps we should

just stick to the basic simplicity that everyone else seems to be able to get their heads

around?
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Andrea
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2004, 09:05:30 PM »

 Wouldn't 3.5/5 become 7/10

odds?  
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JasonCameron
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« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2004, 09:30:44 PM »

 Yeah I guess. But, how does

7/10 work? To me it looks like you place a $10 bet and get $7 back if he wins. Work

that one out...
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Augie1125
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2004, 12:40:47 AM »

 if a horse is 7/10 you get back around 3.60 dollars for every two dollars bet.  So ten to win on him would be 3.60 x 5. 

It's really not that complicated.

If a horse is even money 1/1 you double whatever you bet.  if you bet 10 he pays 4 dollars to win.  Four x five is 20 dollars.

It is hard to explain gambling.  lol
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:46:18 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2004, 12:47:46 AM »

 Just stop now, Jason is lost

for the first time in his life.... ;)
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RosewoodStables
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2004, 03:46:31 AM »

  :blink:  Im officially

scared of betting... this is sooo confusing... gahhhhhh
hmm.... all I kno is that I suck at

betting inreal life, and have a feeling its not gonna change in FF....  
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Toasted
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« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2005, 11:12:00 AM »

 I know this is an old thread, and there seems to be a lot of confusion here, but I guess you can call me an expert in this field - although being another Aussie there are probably some place/show concepts I haven't really thought about too much (over here a 'place' bet is essentially equivilant to 'place' + 'show' in the US).

Anyway....

A quick little run down on ways to display odds.

You have bookmaker odds, which are for example 2/1 - effectively this relates the chance of an event not occuring (2) to the chance of the event occuring (1), therefore 2/1 represents 1 win in every 3 events (1 win plus 2 losses).

As pointed out, if you bet $2 on a horse at 2/1 you would get back $6. This is worked out by multiplying your stake ($2) by the numerator (2) divided by the denomator (1) and adding your stake ($2), so (2x2/1)+2 = 6 (if you don't think it makes sense having your stake returned... have a think about what's happening, for every $1 you bet, the bookmaker is putting up $2 - winner take all. Therefore, if you bet $2, the bookmaker puts up $4 and if you win, you get the whole $6.

If the odds are say 5/4, this gets worked out exactly the same way. If you bet $2 and win, you get (2x5/4)+2 = $4.50 returned

Odds of 1/3 (odds on favourite) = (2x1/3)+2 = $2.67

Next we have totalisator odds, which are just expressed as a multiplier value eg. 3.00

What this means, is that for every $1 you bet, you get $3 back (note, you don't get your stake back here, it is already included in the price. 3.00 is <b>equivilant</b> to 2/1).

To convert bookmaker odds to totalisator odds, you simply divide the numerator by the denominator and add 1, so 2/1 = 2 / 1 + 1 = 3.00; 5/4 = 5 / 4 + 1 = 2.25 etc.

The good thing about totalisator odds is that they relate directly to probabilities. To work out the expected probability of the event, you simply calculate 1/odds; so if the horse has odds of 3.00 this represents 1/3 = 0.333 = 33.3% chance of winning or 1 time every 3 chances, which we know from above can be expressed as 2/1 !

With things like exactas, trifectas etc. we come into the realm of totalisators... a totalisator just simply divides the total amount bet on all combinations (less a fee) by the amount bet on the winning combination to arrive at a dividend (which all people who bet on that winning combination receive). This ensures that the totalisator never loses money, it takes its fee of the top and divides what's left amongst the winners.

Basically a totalisator will keep separate pools for win, place, show, quinella, exacta, trifecta etc. and for each of those bet types, will calculate a dividend based on the number of winners directly in that pool (when I say number of winners,

I am of course meaning the total amount of money bet on the winners - the dividend calculated is for $1, so if you bet $5 on the winner, you win 5 x the dividend etc.)

I think that covers most things... if you want anything clarified or more info on anything - let me know.

Cheers

Toasted
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:48:52 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Shanthi
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« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2005, 01:26:18 PM »

Quote from: Toasted
With things like exactas, trifectas etc. we come into the realm of totalisators... a totalisator just simply divides the total amount bet on all combinations (less a fee) by the amount bet on the winning combination to arrive at a dividend (which all people who bet on that winning combination receive). This ensures that the totalisator never loses money, it takes its fee of the top and divides what's left amongst the winners.

Basically a totalisator will keep separate pools for win, place, show, quinella, exacta, trifecta etc. and for each of those bet types, will calculate a dividend based on the number of winners directly in that pool (when I say number of winners, I am of course meaning the total amount of money bet on the winners - the dividend calculated is for $1, so if you bet $5 on the winner, you win 5 x the dividend etc.)

 Your post was very helpful, until this part.  ;)  Mind breaking it down into a sample like the others?
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:51:09 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Cheq
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2005, 04:44:51 PM »

 If I were a betting man :)

I'd say the programing for handicaping the horses must be more difficult than doing the pay

outs.
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Shanthi
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2005, 05:16:02 PM »

 Well, yeah, I still have no

idea how I'm going to have the script pick the odds.  ;)  But it'd be nice to know how to

handle the betting once the odds are placed.
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JasonCameron
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« Reply #25 on: March 21, 2005, 07:43:07 PM »

 Yussers... Way to totally

confuse people! :)
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Toasted
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« Reply #26 on: March 21, 2005, 10:00:47 PM »

 Programming wise, you can make it as easy or difficult as you like ;)

The easiest way is to do a totalisator, that way - you don't make the odds at all, they make themselves..

Here's an example, lets say we have 6 horses in a race, and we're betting on who we think will win.

Person A bets $50 on number 1
Person B bets $500 on number 2
Person C bets $100 on number 3
Person D bets $300 on number 4
Person E bets $1000 on number 5
Person F bets $50 on number 6

Ok, the total amount bet from all people is $2000 - this is called the pool.

Now, to calculate the dividend (or odds) for each horse, you simply divide the total money in the pool ($2000) by the total money bet on each individual horse, so we get:

Horse 1: 2000 / 50 = 40.00
Horse 2: 2000 / 500 = 4.00
Horse 3: 2000 / 100 = 20.00
Horse 4: 2000 / 300 = 6.67
Horse 5: 2000 / 1000 = 2.00
Horse 6: 2000 / 50 = 40.00

Now, these are the dividends for $1, so which ever horse wins the person who backed it would receive the dividend x $ bet.

A few points:
1. The total payout (dividend of winner x total bet on winner) will always be exactly equal to the total money in the pool (all you are doing is splitting up the total amount bet equally amongst the winners)

2. If you convert these dividends to probabilities (1/dividend) you will get a total of 100% (i.e. 1/40 + 1/4 + 1/20 + 1/6.67 + 1/2 + 1/40 = 1.00).

Now, a 100% market means that all the money paid out to winners is the same as the money that was paid in bets.

Bookmakers generally operate to markets of around 120%, meaning that on average they skim 20% of the money off the top before they give it back to the winners. If the totalisator wants to make a profit, then the same thing happens, instead of dividing the total pool by the amount bet by winners, they first skim a bit off the pool (usually around 15%), so even though there was $2000 bet, they only divide 2000 x (1-0.15) = 1700 amongst the winners, and keep the other $300 for themselves.

To put this in practice you would need to track completely separate pools for each bet type. All win bets will have a separate pool and separate dividends from place bets, which would also be separate to that of show bets, which would also be separate from that of trifecta bets etc. (for place betting, you would still do the above calculations, but first you would divide the total pool by 2 - as there are two horses that can run 1st and 2nd. For show betting you would need to divide the pool by 3 etc.)

How is that - more confusing or less confusing ;)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:52:44 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Cheq
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« Reply #27 on: March 21, 2005, 11:03:14 PM »

 I understand :blink: what

your getting at. However where I've seen betting implemented in a game like this the odds

for each horse are posted along with the horse when the card is set. I actually like the way

Shanthi is doing it here on a limited scale. The whole idea resembles a friendly competetion

not betting on the ponies.

Buy the way just where do you live I have some associates that

would be interested in your uh.... business accumen B)  
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Toasted
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« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2005, 11:31:06 PM »

 I agree - posting the odds

up is probably a more elegant way of doing it, especially in a game environment such as this,

however it also involves infinitely more work for a person to set appropriate odds for each

horse. Using a totalisator approach is automatic, and thus a far easier solution to implement

in terms of time management... still, if someone wants to play bookmaker and set odds for

each race, then that is ceratinly a good option.

I live in Brisbane, Australia - yes

another Aussie in this game ;)
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Shanthi
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« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2005, 12:16:51 AM »

 I'll probably try and come

up with some sort of algorithm for creating the odds, so that the odds are posted at the same

time that entries close.  Then people can actually place "true" longshot bets, since they'd

be knowingly/purposefully betting $1,000, say, on the 100-to-1 horse, rather than

"making" the horse 100-to-1 by betting $1 on him and having the totalizer go "yep, he

sucks".  ;)  (At least, assuming I'm understanding your above example correctly!)

But

yeah..I have no idea when I'll ever have time to do that.  Revamping the racing code is a

bigger priority, as well as finishing nominations, leasing, etc.
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Toasted
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« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2005, 12:40:11 AM »

 That's cool - from an algorithm point of view, probably the most important part (after you assess the relative chances of each horse anyway), is to make sure that your market totals about 115% - 130% (this will give a market similar to what most bookmakers offer and ensures that people can't back every horse in the race for various amounts and guarnatee themselves a profit - which is exactly what is possible if the total market is less than 100%).

So basically, from a programattical point of view you would want to come up with a probability for each horse winning and have these probabilities total between 115% and 130% for each race... so a six horse race might look something like this:

1. 33%
2. 10%
3. 45%
4. 2%
5. 5%
6. 25%

(Total = 120%)

To calculate the odds is then ((1/prob) - 1) "to 1"
... so we get

1. 33% = ((1/0.33) - 1) = 2 to 1
2. 10% = ((1/0.1) - 1) = 9 to 1
3. 45% = ((1/0.45) - 1) = 1.22 to 1
4. 2% = ((1/0.02) - 1) = 49 to 1
5. 5% = ((1/0.05) - 1) = 19 to 1
6. 25% = ((1/0.25) - 1) = 3 to 1

(you would then round the figures to the nearest 'sensible' odds... so 1.22 to 1 would become 5/4, 49/1 would be 50/1, 19/1 would be 20/1 etc. You will probaly need to create a lookup table that has common odds and percentages, compare your actual percentage to that in the table and read off the odds value - or something similar to that anyway)

The hardest part is coming up with the probabilities in the first place ;)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:59:54 PM by Shanthi » Logged
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