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Final Furlong Forum  |  Racing  |  General/Questions  |  Topic: Any betting experts?
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JasonCameron
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« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2004, 08:15:41 PM »

 No, I'm even more lost. So

what your saying is they take your money, then happily give it back along with your winnings?

I don't get it. I give my $10 or whatever to a man, the race is run and he gives me

back $30 at odds of 3/1. Sounds much easier to understand to me.

Perhaps we should

just stick to the basic simplicity that everyone else seems to be able to get their heads

around?
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Andrea
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2004, 09:05:30 PM »

 Wouldn't 3.5/5 become 7/10

odds?  
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JasonCameron
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« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2004, 09:30:44 PM »

 Yeah I guess. But, how does

7/10 work? To me it looks like you place a $10 bet and get $7 back if he wins. Work

that one out...
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Augie1125
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2004, 12:40:47 AM »

 if a horse is 7/10 you get back around 3.60 dollars for every two dollars bet.  So ten to win on him would be 3.60 x 5. 

It's really not that complicated.

If a horse is even money 1/1 you double whatever you bet.  if you bet 10 he pays 4 dollars to win.  Four x five is 20 dollars.

It is hard to explain gambling.  lol
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:46:18 PM by Shanthi » Logged
JasonCameron
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2004, 12:47:46 AM »

 Just stop now, Jason is lost

for the first time in his life.... ;)
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RosewoodStables
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2004, 03:46:31 AM »

  :blink:  Im officially

scared of betting... this is sooo confusing... gahhhhhh
hmm.... all I kno is that I suck at

betting inreal life, and have a feeling its not gonna change in FF....  
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Toasted
Guest
« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2005, 11:12:00 AM »

 I know this is an old thread, and there seems to be a lot of confusion here, but I guess you can call me an expert in this field - although being another Aussie there are probably some place/show concepts I haven't really thought about too much (over here a 'place' bet is essentially equivilant to 'place' + 'show' in the US).

Anyway....

A quick little run down on ways to display odds.

You have bookmaker odds, which are for example 2/1 - effectively this relates the chance of an event not occuring (2) to the chance of the event occuring (1), therefore 2/1 represents 1 win in every 3 events (1 win plus 2 losses).

As pointed out, if you bet $2 on a horse at 2/1 you would get back $6. This is worked out by multiplying your stake ($2) by the numerator (2) divided by the denomator (1) and adding your stake ($2), so (2x2/1)+2 = 6 (if you don't think it makes sense having your stake returned... have a think about what's happening, for every $1 you bet, the bookmaker is putting up $2 - winner take all. Therefore, if you bet $2, the bookmaker puts up $4 and if you win, you get the whole $6.

If the odds are say 5/4, this gets worked out exactly the same way. If you bet $2 and win, you get (2x5/4)+2 = $4.50 returned

Odds of 1/3 (odds on favourite) = (2x1/3)+2 = $2.67

Next we have totalisator odds, which are just expressed as a multiplier value eg. 3.00

What this means, is that for every $1 you bet, you get $3 back (note, you don't get your stake back here, it is already included in the price. 3.00 is <b>equivilant</b> to 2/1).

To convert bookmaker odds to totalisator odds, you simply divide the numerator by the denominator and add 1, so 2/1 = 2 / 1 + 1 = 3.00; 5/4 = 5 / 4 + 1 = 2.25 etc.

The good thing about totalisator odds is that they relate directly to probabilities. To work out the expected probability of the event, you simply calculate 1/odds; so if the horse has odds of 3.00 this represents 1/3 = 0.333 = 33.3% chance of winning or 1 time every 3 chances, which we know from above can be expressed as 2/1 !

With things like exactas, trifectas etc. we come into the realm of totalisators... a totalisator just simply divides the total amount bet on all combinations (less a fee) by the amount bet on the winning combination to arrive at a dividend (which all people who bet on that winning combination receive). This ensures that the totalisator never loses money, it takes its fee of the top and divides what's left amongst the winners.

Basically a totalisator will keep separate pools for win, place, show, quinella, exacta, trifecta etc. and for each of those bet types, will calculate a dividend based on the number of winners directly in that pool (when I say number of winners,

I am of course meaning the total amount of money bet on the winners - the dividend calculated is for $1, so if you bet $5 on the winner, you win 5 x the dividend etc.)

I think that covers most things... if you want anything clarified or more info on anything - let me know.

Cheers

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« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:48:52 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Shanthi
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« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2005, 01:26:18 PM »

Quote from: Toasted
With things like exactas, trifectas etc. we come into the realm of totalisators... a totalisator just simply divides the total amount bet on all combinations (less a fee) by the amount bet on the winning combination to arrive at a dividend (which all people who bet on that winning combination receive). This ensures that the totalisator never loses money, it takes its fee of the top and divides what's left amongst the winners.

Basically a totalisator will keep separate pools for win, place, show, quinella, exacta, trifecta etc. and for each of those bet types, will calculate a dividend based on the number of winners directly in that pool (when I say number of winners, I am of course meaning the total amount of money bet on the winners - the dividend calculated is for $1, so if you bet $5 on the winner, you win 5 x the dividend etc.)

 Your post was very helpful, until this part.  ;)  Mind breaking it down into a sample like the others?
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:51:09 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Cheq
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2005, 04:44:51 PM »

 If I were a betting man :)

I'd say the programing for handicaping the horses must be more difficult than doing the pay

outs.
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Shanthi
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2005, 05:16:02 PM »

 Well, yeah, I still have no

idea how I'm going to have the script pick the odds.  ;)  But it'd be nice to know how to

handle the betting once the odds are placed.
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JasonCameron
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« Reply #25 on: March 21, 2005, 07:43:07 PM »

 Yussers... Way to totally

confuse people! :)
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Toasted
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« Reply #26 on: March 21, 2005, 10:00:47 PM »

 Programming wise, you can make it as easy or difficult as you like ;)

The easiest way is to do a totalisator, that way - you don't make the odds at all, they make themselves..

Here's an example, lets say we have 6 horses in a race, and we're betting on who we think will win.

Person A bets $50 on number 1
Person B bets $500 on number 2
Person C bets $100 on number 3
Person D bets $300 on number 4
Person E bets $1000 on number 5
Person F bets $50 on number 6

Ok, the total amount bet from all people is $2000 - this is called the pool.

Now, to calculate the dividend (or odds) for each horse, you simply divide the total money in the pool ($2000) by the total money bet on each individual horse, so we get:

Horse 1: 2000 / 50 = 40.00
Horse 2: 2000 / 500 = 4.00
Horse 3: 2000 / 100 = 20.00
Horse 4: 2000 / 300 = 6.67
Horse 5: 2000 / 1000 = 2.00
Horse 6: 2000 / 50 = 40.00

Now, these are the dividends for $1, so which ever horse wins the person who backed it would receive the dividend x $ bet.

A few points:
1. The total payout (dividend of winner x total bet on winner) will always be exactly equal to the total money in the pool (all you are doing is splitting up the total amount bet equally amongst the winners)

2. If you convert these dividends to probabilities (1/dividend) you will get a total of 100% (i.e. 1/40 + 1/4 + 1/20 + 1/6.67 + 1/2 + 1/40 = 1.00).

Now, a 100% market means that all the money paid out to winners is the same as the money that was paid in bets.

Bookmakers generally operate to markets of around 120%, meaning that on average they skim 20% of the money off the top before they give it back to the winners. If the totalisator wants to make a profit, then the same thing happens, instead of dividing the total pool by the amount bet by winners, they first skim a bit off the pool (usually around 15%), so even though there was $2000 bet, they only divide 2000 x (1-0.15) = 1700 amongst the winners, and keep the other $300 for themselves.

To put this in practice you would need to track completely separate pools for each bet type. All win bets will have a separate pool and separate dividends from place bets, which would also be separate to that of show bets, which would also be separate from that of trifecta bets etc. (for place betting, you would still do the above calculations, but first you would divide the total pool by 2 - as there are two horses that can run 1st and 2nd. For show betting you would need to divide the pool by 3 etc.)

How is that - more confusing or less confusing ;)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2007, 03:52:44 PM by Shanthi » Logged
Cheq
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« Reply #27 on: March 21, 2005, 11:03:14 PM »

 I understand :blink: what

your getting at. However where I've seen betting implemented in a game like this the odds

for each horse are posted along with the horse when the card is set. I actually like the way

Shanthi is doing it here on a limited scale. The whole idea resembles a friendly competetion

not betting on the ponies.

Buy the way just where do you live I have some associates that

would be interested in your uh.... business accumen B)  
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Toasted
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« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2005, 11:31:06 PM »

 I agree - posting the odds

up is probably a more elegant way of doing it, especially in a game environment such as this,

however it also involves infinitely more work for a person to set appropriate odds for each

horse. Using a totalisator approach is automatic, and thus a far easier solution to implement

in terms of time management... still, if someone wants to play bookmaker and set odds for

each race, then that is ceratinly a good option.

I live in Brisbane, Australia - yes

another Aussie in this game ;)
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Shanthi
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« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2005, 12:16:51 AM »

 I'll probably try and come

up with some sort of algorithm for creating the odds, so that the odds are posted at the same

time that entries close.  Then people can actually place "true" longshot bets, since they'd

be knowingly/purposefully betting $1,000, say, on the 100-to-1 horse, rather than

"making" the horse 100-to-1 by betting $1 on him and having the totalizer go "yep, he

sucks".  ;)  (At least, assuming I'm understanding your above example correctly!)

But

yeah..I have no idea when I'll ever have time to do that.  Revamping the racing code is a

bigger priority, as well as finishing nominations, leasing, etc.
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